Climate Change has started showing its adverse impact on Gujarat. Other states are at risk: Studies

As the unseasonal rain continues to lash Gujarat, the state has received average 3.30 inches of rainfall in October, the highest in last ten years. While the untimely rain has spelt massive loss for the farmers, environmentalists maintain that the phenomenon is a direct manifestation of the severe impacts of climate change that have been building up for decades.

Environmentalists maintain that the developments are in congruence with the global and regional climate studies, which have already indicated such possibilities with growing intensity over time.

According to the Germanwatch Climate Risk Index report, India ranks sixth globally in climate risk. Based on a three-decade global study, India’s climate has shown serious adverse impacts. Due to climate change-induced floods, cyclones, and droughts, India has suffered an estimated loss of USD 180 billion over the past 30 years, with around 80,000 deaths across 400 extreme weather events in last thirty years, the report notes.

The XDI Gross Domestic Climate Risk Report 2024, after examining 2,600 regions worldwide, identifies Gujarat among the top 50 most at-risk regions for climate-related damage. According to the report, after China, India has the highest number of states (nine) in this top 50 list facing severe climate risk. The list also includes Bihar, Uttar Pradseh, Assam, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Punjab among other states facing major Aggregated Damage Risk from climate change hazards in 2050.

Yet another study conducted by the Gujarat University by Dhara J. Sangani, Preet Shah, Pushpendra Singh and Dhruvil Shah published in September that analysed analyzes rainfall variability in Gujarat from 1990 to 2022 to evaluate long term climatological change, extreme precipitation events, and their socio economic consequences, noted that “Gujarat’s rainfall pattern shows a clear shift: total rain is now concentrated in fewer days, often through intense downpours.”

“Gujarat faces a dual hazard of both floods and droughts, as the same climatic system responsible for extreme rainfall can also fail to deliver adequate precipitation. Droughts in the state are strongly tied to the weakening or failure of the Southwest Monsoon, causing large deficits from the Long Period Average (LPA)”, the study noted.

“With limited perennial rivers, growing dependence on groundwater, and heavy reliance on monsoon rains, Gujarat is particularly vulnerable to these precipitation shortfalls. Historical records show that northern Gujarat, along with Saurashtra and Kutch, has been especially drought-prone, at times even facing famine like conditions”, it added.

“It is not that the government is unaware of the massive environmental changes taking place in the state, but decades of environmental neglect in Gujarat have brought the state to this critical point,” said Dr. Parthivrajsinh Kathwadia, a student of environmental movements and Congress Spokesperson.

Pointing out that states like Andhra Pradesh, which have smaller coastal areas than Gujarat, are already building a Great Green Wall along the coast to combat cyclones and climate change which involves bioshielding the coastline through plantations ranging from mangroves to other coastal vegetation to protect coastal areas he asked why such a coastal protection initiative has not been implemented in Gujarat, which has the longest coastline in India.

Gujarat minister for forest and environment Arjun Modvadia however maintained that the state has been at the forefront of national efforts to mitigate the impacts of climate change and had set up the first ever department for climate change. “We are pushing for green energy and reducing carbon footprint and already ahead of our target,” Modvadia told ET. “However one has to acknowledge the fact that this is a global issue and needs global response,” he added.